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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-09T10:04Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 37.3333%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.75 - 4.2
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -29179.40 hour(s)
Difference: 15.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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